EIA sees electricity generation rising through 2027 as the supply mix shifts
The September outlook forecasts 2.2% generation growth in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027, with solar and wind gaining share.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects national electricity generation to keep growing through 2027, while solar and wind account for a larger share of the output. The agency’s September forecast offers a national planning baseline, with a clear limit: its assumptions were finalized on September 3.
In its September 9 release, EIA projected generation of 4,368 billion kilowatthours in 2026, up 2.2% from the preceding year, followed by another 1.7% increase in 2027. These are forecasts of electricity produced over a year, not estimates of new generating capacity.
That distinction matters when the figures reach project planning. Annual energy growth does not specify where additional equipment must connect, when individual facilities will be available, or whether a particular local network can serve a new customer.
The mix behind the growth
The September Short-Term Energy Outlook puts natural gas at about 40% of U.S. generation in both forecast years and nuclear at roughly 18%. Solar’s share rises from 8% in 2026 to 9% in 2027; wind increases from 11% to 12%.
The same outlook projects retail electricity sales of 4,135 billion kilowatthours in 2026 and 4,211 billion in 2027. Sales and generation measure different parts of the electricity system, so their totals should not be treated as interchangeable.
EIA lowered its West South Central sales estimates compared with the previous outlook, while still identifying that region as the largest contributor to forecast demand growth. The revision is a useful reminder that a rising national trajectory can coexist with changes in regional timing.
Reading the forecast for infrastructure
The planning implication is a combination of expansion and adjustment. More annual output points toward greater use of the supply system, while changing generation shares affect which resources contribute that output. Neither result, by itself, establishes the size or commercial readiness of a specific transmission, storage or generation project.
For an owner reviewing a demand case, the September figures provide context rather than a connection commitment. The relevant next layer remains the project’s own utility studies, delivery schedule and operating assumptions. Those details cannot be inferred from national percentages.
This article describes the September forecast as published. Developments after its September 3 assumptions cutoff should be assessed separately, rather than read back into numbers that were prepared earlier.
Sources reviewed September 29, 2026. High-voltage transmission tower; representative photograph. Photo: Novoklimov / CC BY 4.0. No editorial alterations; WordPress may resize or crop for display.
